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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to CHI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model