Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

(5:37) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model