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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to CHI 32, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 43 for 11 yards (31-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 43, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model