Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 77

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

(2:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.76 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model