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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 84

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 5 for -11 yards (91-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.82 EP