Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 95

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:04) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to GB 47, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to GB 41 for 6 yards (44-T.Summers; 51-K.Fackrell). PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at GB 41.

The Three Options

GO -4.14 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.42 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 95, worth -6.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model