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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 20

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.04 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model