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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CIN
24.8%
SEA
75.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
SEA 28
Projected margin: SEA by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Trayveon Williams RB Out Foot
Auden Tate WR Doubtful Knee

SEA

Joey Hunt C Out Ankle
David Moore WR Out Shoulder
L.J. Collier DE Out Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Mike Iupati G Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
SEA 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:52 FG CIN (2:52) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 06:39 TD SEA (6:39) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 05:20 TD CIN (5:20) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 11-J.Ross III for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:59 TD SEA (:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CIN 10 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:16 TD CIN (:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-J.Ross III for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – SEA 14
  • Q4 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 17 – SEA 20
  • Q4 07:03 FG CIN (7:03) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 20 – SEA 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 25%

    (12:04) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to CIN 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (2:52) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CIN 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 43 for 9 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven). FUMBLES (55-B.Burr-Kirven), RECOVERED by SEA-44-N.Bellore at CIN 43. 44-N.Bellore to CIN 43 for no gain (34-S.Perine). Penalty on CIN-57-G.Pratt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. Penalty on CIN-34-S.Perine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:20) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CIN 48, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 11 yards (49-Sm.Griffin; 88-W.Dissly).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to CIN 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 9 yards (88-W.Dissly).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%

    (7:43) 4-R.Bullock 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to CIN 16, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton. PENALTY on CIN-82-C.Carter, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 62%

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard to SEA 36 for no gain (72-A.Woods).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (7:03) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to CIN 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 29 for 5 yards (27-M.Blair).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:30) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CIN 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.