4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model