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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 11 yards (49-Sm.Griffin; 88-W.Dissly).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model