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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 4-R.Bullock 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model