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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model