Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CIN 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 43 for 9 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven). FUMBLES (55-B.Burr-Kirven), RECOVERED by SEA-44-N.Bellore at CIN 43. 44-N.Bellore to CIN 43 for no gain (34-S.Perine). Penalty on CIN-57-G.Pratt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. Penalty on CIN-34-S.Perine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model