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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model