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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to CIN 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.87 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model