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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(2:07) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard to SEA 36 for no gain (72-A.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model