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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-01-06 · 13:05 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LAC
51.4%
BAL
48.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.049 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.253 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 22
–
BAL 21
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

LAC

Jatavis Brown LB Out Ankle
Brandon Mebane DT Doubtful Not Injury Related
Austin Ekeler RB Questionable Groin

BAL

Chris Moore WR Questionable Shoulder
Alex Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Tavon Young CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 23
–
BAL 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:03 FG LAC (7:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 3 – BAL 0
  • Q1 01:14 FG LAC (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 03:26 FG LAC (3:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 9 – BAL 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 12 – BAL 0
  • Q3 08:34 FG BAL (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. LAC 12 – BAL 3
  • Q4 14:58 TD LAC (14:58) 68-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 18 – BAL 3
  • Q4 09:14 FG LAC (9:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 23 – BAL 3
  • Q4 06:40 TD BAL (6:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – BAL 9
  • Q4 02:06 TD BAL (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree to LAC 1 for 6 yards (37-J.Addae). Baltimore challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – BAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:03) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 23 for 9 yards (10-C.Moore).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:32) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 42 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (7:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to BAL 42 for 33 yards (4-S.Koch; 41-A.Levine Sr.).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 61%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (14:25) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to LAC 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 10 for 4 yards (10-C.Moore).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:28) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-34-D.Watt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

    (3:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to LAC 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (13:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Z.Smith), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LAC 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 38 for 7 yards (26-M.Canady). PENALTY on LAC-29-J.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 31.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:06) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 11 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel. Partially blocked by Allen

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 68%

    (4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (14:58) 68-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to BAL 45, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (9:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead IV to LAC 31 for 29 yards (23-R.Jenkins). Penalty on LAC-99-J.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 34%

    (4:55) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree to LAC 1 for 6 yards (37-J.Addae). Baltimore challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:54) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.