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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 23 for 9 yards (10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model