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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-34-D.Watt.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP