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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP