Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead IV to LAC 31 for 29 yards (23-R.Jenkins). Penalty on LAC-99-J.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP