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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP