Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LAC 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 38 for 7 yards (26-M.Canady). PENALTY on LAC-29-J.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.25 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model