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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP