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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:32) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 42 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model