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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIN
46.0%
DET
54.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.028 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
DET 22
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIN

Eric Kendricks LB Out Hamstring

DET

Charles Washington S Out Hamstring
Bruce Ellington WR Out Hamstring
Jamal Agnew CB Questionable Knee
LeGarrette Blount RB Questionable Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Chest
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Ankle
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Hip
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27
–
DET 9

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:35 FG DET (7:35) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 10:43 FG DET (10:43) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 04:10 FG DET (4:10) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 0 – DET 9
  • Q2 01:35 TD MIN (1:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:02 TD MIN (:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DET 9
  • Q3 08:57 FG MIN (8:57) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 17 – DET 9
  • Q4 13:31 TD MIN (13:31) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – DET 9
  • Q4 04:19 FG MIN (4:19) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 27 – DET 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 46%

    (11:42) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 2, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-47-T.Walker.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:21) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to DET 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 43. 39-J.Agnew to DET 43 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%

    (7:35) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:12) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to DET 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew to DET 32 for 9 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 64%

    (1:52) 6-S.Martin punts 24 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-34-Z.Zenner.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 6-M.Wile punts 29 yards to MIN 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (10:43) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:33) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to DET 30, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 34 for 4 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

    (4:10) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (:45) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to MIN 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET. PENALTY on DET-47-T.Walker, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 15. Penalty on DET-10-B.Powell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (8:57) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:30) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:09) 6-M.Wile punts 58 yards to DET 8, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew to DET 13 for 5 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 15-B.Zylstra pushed ob at MIN 47 for 8 yards (43-N.Bellore).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (9:11) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:25) 6-M.Wile punts 54 yards to DET 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew to DET 32 for 11 yards (31-A.Abdullah). PENALTY on DET-21-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 21.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 10 for -8 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (4:19) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay (20-M.Alexander).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (2:08) 25-L.Murray left end to DET 21 for -6 yards (32-T.Wilson).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 36%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Cassel scrambles left tackle to MIN 34 for 14 yards (42-B.Gedeon).