Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 97

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to DET 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 43. 39-J.Agnew to DET 43 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.21 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 97, worth -6.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model