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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to DET 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew to DET 32 for 9 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model