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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 48

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Cassel scrambles left tackle to MIN 34 for 14 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP