Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 91

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 17

(4:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 15-B.Zylstra pushed ob at MIN 47 for 8 yards (43-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.04 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model