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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 61

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:45) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to MIN 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET. PENALTY on DET-47-T.Walker, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 15. Penalty on DET-10-B.Powell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.44 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP