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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model