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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP