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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 44

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 2, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-47-T.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.54 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model