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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to DET 30, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 34 for 4 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model