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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

SEA
61.3%
SF
38.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Nick Mullens (SF) +0.130 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.144 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
SF 20
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

SEA

Maurice Alexander S Out Concussion
Rashaad Penny RB Out Knee
K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
D.J. Fluker G Doubtful Hamstring
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Oblique
Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Hip
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Knee

SF

Jaquiski Tartt S Out Shoulder
Matt Breida RB Questionable Ankle
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Calf
Cassius Marsh DE Questionable Concussion
Mark Nzeocha LB Questionable Groin
Dante Pettis WR Questionable Foot
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 23
–
SF 26

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:31 TD SEA (9:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF -5. 0-YAC SEA 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 09:27 TD SF 11-S.Janikowski kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to SF 3. 13-R.James for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 6
  • Q2 09:37 TD SF (9:37) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 88-G.Celek for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 25. 25-YAC SEA 6 – SF 13
  • Q2 05:29 TD SEA (5:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC SEA 12 – SF 14
  • Q2 01:10 FG SF (1:10) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 13 – SF 17
  • Q3 02:59 FG SF (2:59) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 13 – SF 20
  • Q4 13:57 TD SEA (13:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – SF 20
  • Q4 09:56 FG SF (9:56) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 20 – SF 23
  • Q4 05:27 FG SEA (5:27) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 23 – SF 23
  • Q5 03:11 FG SF (3:11) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 23 – SF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:38) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SEA 41, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 50%

    (4:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to SF 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

    (15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to SF 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-23-N.Thorpe.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (1:10) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 30 for 11 yards (28-J.Coleman, 69-T.Ott).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-40-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 19 for 4 yards (23-N.Thorpe; 28-J.Coleman). PENALTY on SEA-23-N.Thorpe, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SF 19.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (2:59) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (13:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 79%

    (9:56) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

    (5:27) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:29) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 34, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.