Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 19 for 4 yards (23-N.Thorpe; 28-J.Coleman). PENALTY on SEA-23-N.Thorpe, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SF 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.05 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model