Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 23

(4:29) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 34, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model