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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SEA 41, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP