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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model