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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP