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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model