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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 1
Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 20
What Actually Happened
(13:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
- 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.42 EP
KICK
+1.82 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
