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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

MIN
28.9%
NE
71.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIN

Chad Beebe WR Out Hamstring
David Morgan TE Out Knee
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Knee
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Knee
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Zylstra WR Questionable Foot

NE

Dwayne Allen TE Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 TD NE (9:36) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 46-J.Develin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 05:48 FG NE (5:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 12th career 100-pt season, ties Akers, Hanson & Stover for 4th-most all-time. MIN 0 – NE 10
  • Q2 00:19 TD MIN (:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – NE 10
  • Q3 02:24 FG MIN (2:24) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 10 – NE 10
  • Q3 00:42 TD NE (:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gordon for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 508th career TD pass, ties Favre for 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 579th career TD pass (including postseason), ties P.Manning for most all-time. MIN 10 – NE 16
  • Q4 10:57 TD NE (10:57) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 46-J.Develin up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – NE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:36) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to NE 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 17 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 76%

    (5:31) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 36%

    (2:40) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to MIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:11) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to NE 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-J.Edelman to NE 31 for 6 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.09 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (5:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 12th career 100-pt season, ties Akers, Hanson & Stover for 4th-most all-time.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 21%

    (3:15) 6-M.Wile punts 36 yards to NE 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to MIN 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 4 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:27) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to MIN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:48) 6-M.Wile punts 44 yards to NE 34, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-J.Edelman to MIN 44 for 22 yards (27-J.Kearse). PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 81%

    (8:48) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at MIN 25 for 2 yards (20-M.Alexander).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (6:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (2:24) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:22) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to NE 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-J.Edelman to 50 for 23 yards (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:02) 25-L.Murray up the middle to MIN 39 for 1 yard (98-T.Flowers; 93-L.Guy). NE-23-P.Chung was injured during the play. New England challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 08:52.)

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 31%

    (6:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 11-L.Treadwell to NE 44 for 4 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 65%

    (:54) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.