4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model