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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 6-M.Wile punts 36 yards to NE 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.31 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model