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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 46

New England Patriots 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to MIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model