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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model