Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New England Patriots 17

(14:22) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to NE 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-J.Edelman to 50 for 23 yards (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model