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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 27

New England Patriots 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at MIN 25 for 2 yards (20-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.47 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model